Posts Tagged ‘Crude’
Frontrunning: May 23
Thursday, 23 May 2013 06:44
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  • Global shares sink, following 7.3 percent drop in Japan’s Nikkei (Reuters)
  • When all fails, pull a Kevin Bacon: Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off (BBG)
  • White House Feeds IRS Frenzy by Revising Accounts (BBG)
  • In any scandal, lying to Congress is tough to prove (Reuters)

    • (Read more…)

  • Debt limit resets at higher level, budget impasse grinds on (Reuters)
  • China factory data to test political calculations (FT)
  • European Leaders Saying No to Austerity (BBG)
  • And yet, nobody wants in anymore: Iceland’s new coalition government suspends EU accession talks (FT)
  • Oil Manipulation Inquiry Shows EU’s Hammer After Libor (BBG)
  • The Fed Squeezes the Shadow-Banking System (WSJ)
  • Diamond Said to Weigh Backing Barclays Alumni in Venture (BBG)
  • Spain’s Private Jets Disappearing as Tycoons Cut Flights (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Hundreds of JPMorgan Chase & Co employees have been redeployed to help the bank resolve its mounting regulatory troubles, said people familiar with the effort. The number of people devoted to the task is likely to double by year end as the largest bank in the United States responds to heightened scrutiny from its regulators, according to people familiar with the effort.

* General Electric Co is thinking more seriously about selling off large parts of its financial business, which by itself would be the country’s fifth-largest bank and which investors want to shrink.

* Ford Motor Co said it would stop producing cars in Australia in 2016, foreshadowing hefty job losses in a setback for a government that has invested heavily in propping up the country’s automobile industry.

* Some of the biggest U.S. companies, including Google Inc and FedEx Corp, have quietly removed hundreds of offshore subsidiaries from their publicly disclosed financial filings over the past several years. The vanishing subsidiaries don’t stem from asset sales or corporate restructuring. Companies across industries say they are taking advantage of Securities and Exchange Commission rules that demand disclosure only when subsidiary operations are “significant.”

* U.S. automakers are accelerating production lines and in some cases, even canceling the North American industry’s traditional summer factory shutdowns to meet strong demand. The plans highlight the Detroit Three automakers’ recent market share gains against Japanese rivals and the auto industry’s prime position in the U.S. economic recovery. Car sales have roared ahead this year even as retail spending on clothing and other goods remains tepid.

* The landscape for proxy advisers is getting rockier. Big firms that sell recommendations on how to vote in corporate elections are losing some of their relevance, as companies more aggressively court key investors ahead of big votes and those investors handle more of the voting analysis themselves.

 

NYT

* The plan to assure safety in factories in Bangladesh, forged after a
deadly collapse, could put American retailers at risk for litigation,
some specialists say.

* Born overseas and educated in the United
States, workers in the heart of the technology industry are in a kind
of suspension as the Senate considers the immigration bill.

*
Hacking in China thrives across official, corporate and criminal worlds
and is openly discussed and promoted, whether for breaking into private
networks, tracking dissent or stealing trade secrets.

* JPMorgan
Chase is redoubling its efforts to move beyond a big trading loss
following a resounding shareholder endorsement to keep Jamie Dimon as
both chairman and chief of the bank.

* While Wednesday’s
Internal Revenue Service hearing felt like an unforgiving, angry
inquisition, senators seemed halfhearted in their desire to beat up on
Apple, which has been accused of dodging taxes.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* A draft report on Prince Edward Island Senator Mike Duffy’s expenses clearly shows a Conservative-dominated committee removed several key sentences that would have cast him in a more negative light. A copy of the report obtained by The Globe and Mail contains 10 paragraphs, whereas the final version from the Senate internal economy committee has only seven.

* Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has been sacked as coach of the Don Bosco Eagles and told he can forget about a football post at any school in the Toronto Catholic school board, putting an end to a volunteer effort that brought trouble and triumph to the city’s beleaguered leader.

Reports in the business section:

* Texas-based Valero Energy Corp will invest as much as C$200 million ($193.51 million) in its Quebec refinery if Enbridge Inc proceeds with its plan to reverse its Line 9 pipeline, a project one Quebec business leader described on Wednesday as critical to the province’s refining and petrochemical industry.

NATIONAL POST

* More than 1,500 mourners were leaving a Hamilton hall at the end of an emotional public funeral for Tim Bosma on Wednesday when the mood was lifted, just a little, by news that a second man was arrested in his shocking murder case.

* Senators should disclose their expenses just as cabinet ministers do, the top Conservative in the Senate says, meaning the details of every trip and every receipt could be made public. The comments from Senator Marjory LeBreton came as the Conservatives began their push in the Senate to tighten spending rules on travel and housing allowances. Approval of the changes is unlikely to occur until next week at the earliest with the Liberals accusing the government of bulldozing through its reforms.

FINANCIAL POST

* Hunter Harrison, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd’s chief executive, fired back at some of the railway’s union leaders on Wednesday after they expressed concerns this week that a restructuring underway at the railway may be contributing to several high-profile derailments, including one in Saskatchewan on Tuesday that spilled more than 68,500 litres of crude oil on the ground before it was contained.

* New England is in an uproar over a pipeline reversal that would allow Canadian oil sands to be transported from Montreal to Portland in Maine, en route to global markets. Last month, Vermont’s environmental regulators ruled that the reversal would trigger “substantial change” and will require a permit. New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan has written to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry pleading to “protect New Hampshire’s economy and environment”.

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– Combined profits at China’s state-owned enterprises rose 5.3 percent to 689 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) in the first four months of 2013 from a year earlier, the finance ministry said in a statement.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– China’s President Xi Jinping will meet U.S. President Barack Obama in early June, a widely-watched meeting which researchers expect will focus on strengthening ties between the world’s top two economies.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– Chinese consumer spending intentions rebounded to their highest level since the third quarter of 2010, according to a report from information services firm Nielsen.

CHINA DAILY

– Corporate business travel in China is expected to increase 15.1 percent in 2013, according to a study by AirPlus International. China is now considered the fastest-growing market for the sector.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– Foreign direct investment in Shanghai rose to $1.6 billion in April, up 14.9 from a year earlier, driven by strong investment in the city’s manufacturing sector.

 

Corporate Finance

* Building products maker CPG International is being prepared for a sale by its private equity owner, a deal that could fetch between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, according to three people familiar with the matter.

* A board member at Italy’s troubled lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena is being investigated over allegations of breaking insider trading rules and has been suspended, a judicial source said on Wednesday.

* Private equity-controlled power firm Alinta Energy is planning a $1 billion-plus debt issue in the U.S. term loan B institutional market to refinance maturing debt, banking sources familiar with the deal said, joining a growing number of Australian borrowers attracted by the terms and pricing available.

* General Electric Co is considering listing its consumer finance operations to fund more share buybacks and strengthen focus on its industrial businesses, its chief executive has indicated, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. ()

* Title insurer Fidelity National Financial Inc and buyout firm Thomas H. Lee Partners are in advanced talks to acquire mortgage service provider Lender Processing Services Inc , a source familiar with the matter said.

* Blackstone Group LP and Prologis Inc have agreed to buy a portfolio of 17 million square feet of warehouse and distribution centers whose majority owner is Lehman Brothers for about $960 million, two sources familiar with the deal said on Wednesday.

* Carrefour, Europe’s largest retailer, agreed to sell its remaining 25-percent stake in a Middle East joint venture to local partner Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) for 530 million euros ($682.45 million), MAF said in a statement on Wednesday.

* India’s Srei Infrastructure Finance Ltd is poised to buy the domestic banking unit of nationalised Austrian lender Hypo Alpe Adria for 65.5 million euros ($84.34 million), the newspaper Die Presse said.

* A team including former General Motors Co executive Bob Lutz and China’s largest parts maker is looking to buy Fisker Automotive for $20 million, a fraction of the “green” car company’s estimated worth almost a year and a half ago.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Atwood Oceanics (ATW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Demandware (DWRE) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
Diamond Offshore (DO) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
FactSet (FDS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka
Seagate (STX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Thomson Reuters (TRI) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray
VeriFone (PAY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust

Downgrades

Blue Nile (NILE) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Devon Energy (DVN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Fabrinet (FN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Flextronics (FLEX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Prosperity Bancshares (PB) downgraded to Market Perform at BMO Capital
Realty Income (O) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
ReneSola (SOL) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Sanmina (SANM) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Initiations

Choice Hotels (CHH) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
CoStar Group (CSGP) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Gartner (IT) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
Hyatt Hotels (H) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
IHS Inc. (IHS) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) coverage assumed with an Underperform at Credit Suisse
Marriott Vacations (VAC) initiated with a Buy at Stifel
PDC Energy (PDCE) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Solera (SLH) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
Wyndham (WYN) initiated with a Buy at Stifel

HOT STOCKS

J.C. Penney (JCP) entered into new $2.25B credit facility
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) CEO Whitman said “encouraged with where we are” with turnaround
FDA panel voted 13-3 that Merck (MRK) insomnia drug safe in low doses, Bloomberg reports
Nordion (NDZ) divested Targeted Therapies business to BTG for $200M
Royalty Pharma lowered acceptance threshold to 50% for Elan (ELN) offer
Signet Jewelers (SIG) raised Kay, Jared store openings view to 70-80 stores in FY14

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
HEICO (HEI), Shanda Games (GAME), L Brands (LTD), Synopsys (SNPS), Workday (WDAY), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), PetSmart (PETM), ValueVision (VVTV)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Taomee (TAOM), Quality Systems (QSII), Bristow Group (BRS), 8×8 Inc (EGHT)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Pactera (PACT), Semtech (SMTC), DryShips (DRYS)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

  • SoftBank (SFTBF) is readying a plan to allow the U.S. government an unusual level of influence over the operations of Sprint Nextel (S), a concession to ease security concerns raised by the proposed cross-border takeover, the Wall Street Journal reports
  • Discovery Communications (DISCA) is today launching its first online video network, with original series available free, hoping to capture younger viewers harder to reach through traditional TV, the Wall Street Journal reports
  • Russia’s second largest bank VTB wants to sell its stake in Societe Generale’s (SCGLY) Russian unit Rosbank and may part with it by the end of the year, according to the  Kommersant daily, Reuters reports
  • Major companies should disclose how much tax they pay in each country where they operate, says Michel Barnier, the European commissioner in charge of drafting business regulation. The move follows a report this week that Apple (AAPL) paid little or no tax on tens of billions of dollars in profits channeled through Irish subsidiaries, Reuters reports
  • U.S. bankers and insurers (BAC, JPM, AIG, CB) are trying to use trade deals, which can trump existing legislation, to weaken parts of the Dodd-Frank Act designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, Bloomberg reports
  • Infosys (INFY) CEO S.D. Shibulal says the worst may be over for India’s second largest software-services provider, which slid 17% in the past two months. But investors are not convinced, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Apricus Biosciences (APRI) files to sell common stock
AvalonBay (AVB) announces 7.87M common stock at-the-market offering
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) 22.5M share Secondary priced at $25.50
ChannelAdvisor (ECOM) 5.75M share IPO priced at $14.00
Constellium Holdco (CSTM) 22.2M share IPO priced at $15.00
Equity Residential (EQR) announces 15.07M common share at-the-market offering
Global Brass & Copper (BRSS) 7M share IPO price $11.00
Laclede (LG) 8.7M share Secondary priced at $44.50
Oaktree Capital (OAK) 7M share Secondary priced at $53.50
Ply Gem (PGEM) 15.789M share IPO priced at $21.00
Teekay LNG (TGP) enters into $100M equity distribution agreement
Wesco Aircraft (WAIR) 15M share Secondary priced at $16.00

    



 
What Has Happened So Far
Thursday, 23 May 2013 06:21
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Once again: The FOMC minutes had nothing to do with overnight’s events, especially since both Ben Bernanke and Bill Dudley made it very clear previously that for any tapering to occur (and which is supposedly bullish according to David Tepper, who may finally be done selling to momentum chasers) if ever, the economy would have to be be stronger (which is of course a paradox because it is the Fed’s QE that is making the economy weaker). If anything, the minutes reminded us that there is a mutiny in the FOMC with finally someone having the guts to say on the record that Bernanke is blowing a bubble – something never seen before on the official FOMC record. And after all, the Nikkei opened way up, not down. It was only after the realization of what (Read more…) bond yields mean for, wait for it, stocks (despite central planner promises that it is soaring bond yields that are a good thing – turns out, they aren’t) that the sell-off really started. That, and of course copper, and the end of the Chinese Copper Financing Deals arrangement that has been China’s illicit cross-asset rehypothecation scheme for years (more shortly). So in a nutshell, here is what has transpired so far, courtesy of Bloomberg.

  • Treasuries higher as global stock markets fell on concerns over rising interest rates in wake of Bernanke’s testimony yday and evidence that China’s economy may be slowing.
  • Japan’s Topix index fell almost 7%, the most since the aftermath of the March 2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster; financial firms slid amid rising bond yields
  • 10Y JGB yields erased earlier losses as stocks fell  after yields touched 1%, the highest in a year
  • UST domestic trading volumes were highest in 5yrs yday, FTN’s Jim Vogel wrote. 10Y yield rose as high as 2.062%, highest since March 14; TY traded 3m contracts yday, busiest day for 1st contract on record, according to Bloomberg data to 1982
  • Economy Minister Amari said there’s no reason to be concerned over stock market decline, economic recovery on track
  • China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI stood at 49.6 for May, contracting for 1st time in 7 mos. and adding to signs of slowing economic growth in 2Q
  • Bond buying should respond to economic data, Fed’s Bullard said in speech in London; Fed should “continue with the present quantitative easing program, adjusting the rate of purchases appropriately in view of incoming data on both real economic performance and inflation”
  • The euro area’s manufacturing PMI for May rose to 47.8, services to 47.5; composite index at 47.7, est. 47.2; Germany’s manufacturing PMI 49.8
  • U.K. GDP +0.3% in 1Q, confirming initial estimate, on inventories, consumer spending; exports declined sharply in quarter
  • Surge in Japanese bond yields since early April would push up Prime Minister Abe’s budget bill by about $3 billion, a possibility that’s prompting central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to pledge more focus on curbing debt-market swings * Deutsche Bank AG, continental Europe’s biggest bank, said some investors are probably underestimating the ramifications of the European debt crisis and a political stalemate over the U.S. debt ceiling
  • Bond investors don’t perceive the six biggest U.S. banks as “too big to fail,” according to a report from one of those lenders, Goldman Sachs
  • U.S. bankers and insurers are trying to use trade deals, which can trump existing legislation, to weaken parts of the Dodd-Frank Act designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis
  • China will tighten rules on bond sales by polluters, local government financing vehicles with higher debt levels and companies in industries with overcapacity as the  government seeks to redirect the economy
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS steady at 141bps, tight for year, as $14.05b priced. Markit IG at 71.6bps, YTD low 69bps. High Yield Master II OAS tightened  to 427bps from 435bps; $1.59b priced yesterday. CDX High Yield fell to 106.63 from 107.13
  • Sovereign yields mixed; euro-area peripheral yields higher; core G-4 yields lower. Asian stocks fell across the board; European stocks, U.S. stock-index futures lower. WTI crude, metals lower, gold gains 1.4%

And SocGen’s recap:

The 7.3% collapse in the Nikkei and the sharp intra-day volatility
yesterday in bonds and currencies shows the formidable task facing the
Fed (and other central banks) as they prepare to take the first steps of
ending the policy of extreme accommodation. A tapering of asset
purchases is by no means a tightening in policy, but the wild reaction
to the faintest indication that the Fed is preparing to start dialling
back, possibly as soon as September, demonstrates how tricky it will be
for policymakers to wean markets off liquidity without causing a tremor.
However, Bernanke in his prepared remarks could not have been clearer
yesterday: he is in no hurry to change monetary policy. While he
acknowledged afterwards that the pace of asset purchases may slow over
the next few meetings, the Fed Chairman was unequivocal that so far,
economic indicators and fiscal considerations do not yet make that an
option. The job market’s recovery does not yet make it an option. He
clearly does not want a change in monetary policy to push up interest
rates and endanger the real estate market’s recovery. Today, we will be
watching the initial claims and new home sales data.

In
the short term, pro-risk strategies are likely to be favoured still but
the days of remorseless gains may well be numbered for stocks after the
drubbing for the Nikkei. A
possible change of tack by the Fed and a simultaneous weakening in
China will spur further profit taking, ending a blistering rally.
USD/JPY hit 103.45 yesterday but the subsequent pull back overnight
shows the JPY still has its admirers when risk goes in reverse.

The
EUR/USD trend is more muddied. In the euro zone, the manufacturing and
services PMI indices announced today will give us some more information
on the outlook for activity in Q2, but the focus will be on the speech
by ECB president Draghi. We are hoping that the string of unpleasant
surprises will slow, giving some modest support to EUR/USD. Support runs
at 1.2797 and 1.2775. The trend in US 10-year bond yields should
dictate the path as illustrated in our chart.

Across the
Channel, will the downward pressure on EUR/GBP resume as UK growth
outpaces that of the euro zone, or will EUR/GBP get caught up in the
woes affecting other EUR exchange rates? We still prefer fading
short-term gains.

    



 
The Macro Story as Told by Gold, Copper and Oil
Wednesday, 22 May 2013 06:47
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By EconMatters

Gold’s been on a wild ride.  After reaching a peak of $1,920 an ounce in September 2011, gold has tumbled 28% to the current ~$1,380 level forcing John Paulson to take a 47% loss in his gold fund during the first four months of this year, according to Bloomberg. 

 

(Read more…)

Unlike Paulson who maintained his positions in gold, other big players like George Soros and  BlackRock cut their gold ETF holdings, while Goldman Sachs issued a sell recommendation on gold right before the yellow metal plunged 13% through April 15, the biggest drop in three decades.  And by looking at the futures curve (chart below), market does not seem to expect gold to come back roaring any time soon.

 

Chart Source: S&P Capital IQ

QEs Not Hitting the Real Economy


Historically, gold is regarded as a good inflation hedge and store of value, typically thriving in an environment of high inflation, and/or weak U.S. dollar (currency debasement).  With U.S. Federal Reserve’s three rounds of QE, the never-ending debt crisis in the Eurozone, hyperinflation and dollar debasement seem inevitable and supportive of gold for the long run, right?    

 

Theoretically, Fed’s QE and near zero fed funds rate is supposed to encourage borrowing and spending from the private sector thus injecting money into the real economy.  However, theory and reality don’t always see eye to eye. 

 

Since the 2008 financial crisis, banks have significantly tightened the credit standard and are reluctant to lend.  On the other hand, corporations are making money mostly from “streamlined” headcount and structure, but instead of the intended wealth distribution effect expected by the Fed such as investing back to the economy, or increase employee pay which would in turn increase consumer spending, most corporations are hoarding cash or use profits for dividend, share buybacks, or mergers & acquisitions with limited impact on the real economy.     

 

Copper & Oil Indicating Weak Demand


The weak demand is also reflected in part of the commodity market fundamental.  WTI crude oil inventory climbed to 82-year high and copper inventory at LME hit a 10-year high in April, while Goldman Sachs cut its “near-term” outlook for commodities. 

 

Although some have argued oil and copper have lost their significance primarily due to increasing domestic oil production, and “temporary” excess copper supply.  While the abundance of domestic shale oil production may have distorted the historical supply and demand relationship, but with the U.S. becoming the world’s largest fuel exporter, the fast and furious oil inventory build is nevertheless still an indication of a weak world economy.  And I can’t imagine how the “temporary” buildup of copper inventory is not a sign of weak global economic condition?

 

Further Reading - Oil Market Manipulation Reaches Absurd Levels

 

Massive QEs, Limited Inflation?


On top of the overall weak spending and demand in the private sector, most of the developed countries are undergoing some shape or form of austerity with reduced government spending.  China, the growth engine of the world, is having some problems of its own.  The old-fashioned massive infrastructure building QE program got China through the 2008 financial crisis, and was the main driver behind commodity prices.  But Beijing can’t afford another QE due to inflation concern (plus China has probably run out of things to build).  Low wage levels means China consumers can’t really pick up the spending slack, coupled with bad credit problem (i.e., NPL: Non-Performing Loans), and recent capital flight, had many analysts worried enough to downgrade China’s growth prospect.  

 

The simultaneous pullback from both the private and government sectors in U.S. Europe, and China is a major factor why Fed’s massive QEs have resulted in only limited inflationary pressure and increasing signs of deflation.  

 

Dollar and Carry Trade Kills Gold


Nonetheless, when compared with Europe, China or any other regions in the world, the U.S. seems relatively more stable, and has been able to retain the “safe haven” status despite its own debt problem.  With investors pouring money into U.S. equity and bond propping up the dollar, and weak demand suppressing inflation, two of the main conditions for a strong gold price — high inflation and a weak US dollar — are basically non-existent in the current macro environment.  Furthermore, there was already a bit of disconnect between gold and the other commodity prices such as copper, and oil.  So eventually, gold had to come to grip with the macro reality.    

 

Chart Source: Stockcharts.com

 

Another major factor against gold right now is that gold has no yield and is out of favor with the huge yield-seeking yen carry trade crowd (borrowing yen to invest in higher yield options) since bond and equity now are offering much better returns.  Unless there’s a shock to the system such as a war breaking out in the Middle East, or an eventual debt crisis in Japan when people start seeking safety, there’s not much upside momentum for gold.

 

Gold’s Volatility Game


For now, the prevalent view is that the Fed will slow or exit QE3, and gold is out of favor under the the current macro trend.  For example, Lim Chow Kiat, the chief investment officer of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), thinks gold still looks overpriced as the usage of gold for industrial or consumer products doesn’t quite justify the prices.  GIC is one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds.

 

As long as dollar maintain its strength and inflation remains tame, gold prices most likely will see considerable volatility swinging between rumors and speculation (e.g., some central banks may need to unload some of their holdings due to debt crisis), and Asia retail buying on the dip (South China Morning Post reported that many shops in Hong Kong were running out of the precious metal for the first time in decades.)

 

Technically speaking, gold’s next support level should be $1,330 range with $1,320 as the major support when most physical retail buyers would rush in.  If gold breaks below $1,300 hard, expect a major liquidation when even Paulson could be forced to sell and everybody piles in.

 

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