Posts Tagged ‘Middle East’
Gold Demand Remains Strong As Buying Records Continue To Tumble
Thursday, 16 May 2013 09:30
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Today’s AM fix was USD 1,377.00, EUR 1,070.01 and GBP 904. (Read more…)32 per ounce.  
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,412.25, EUR 1,094.51 and GBP 926.67 per ounce. 

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Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Gold fell $32.70 or -2.29% yesterday to $1,392.70/oz and silver slid to $22.50 and finished – 3.55%. 

There are no surprises in the latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report other than the fact that statistics show global demand for gold in Q1 2013 was on the increase before the COMEX raid on April 15th. This is a clear indication that the fundamentals supporting a strong price for gold in the long term remain and also helps to explain why there was such a shortage of gold bars and coins in the weeks after April 15th.

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Gold in USD, 16 May 2013 – (Bloomberg)

The statistics speak for themselves: 

1. Jewellery demand was up 12% year-on-year; China returned a 19% increase on the same period last year, India and Middle East at 15%, and interestingly the US at 6%, its first increase since 2005.

2. Demand for gold bars and coins were up in all markets; 22% year-on-year in China and 52% in India and 43% in the US.

3. Central Banks continued their gold purchasing programme for the seventh consecutive quarter purchasing over 100 tons. The sector accounted for 11% of demand worth $5.7bn with volumes concentrated in emerging markets.

4. Though it was 4% down the previous year, demand in the technology sector once again surpassed 100t for the quarter demand in Q1 2013.

Marcus Grubb, Managing Director of Investments at the World Gold Council commented: “The price drop in April, fuelled by non-physical moves in the market, proved to be the catalyst for a surge of buying that has left many retailers short of stock and refineries introducing waiting lists for deliveries. Putting this into context, sales of bars and coins, jewellery and consumption in the technology sector still make up 81% of the market.

Grubb added: “What these figures show is that even before the events of April, the fundamentals of the gold market remain robust with; growing demand in India and China, central banks consistently adding gold to their reserves and strong buying of investment products such as gold bars and coins.”

Key gold demand and supply statistics for Q1 2013
• First quarter gold demand of 963t was down 13% compared with Q1 2012.

• The value measure of gold demand in Q1 2013 was US$51bn, down 16% on the year before.

• The Q1 2013 average gold price was US$1,632 down 3% on the year before.

• The net outflow from ETFs was 177t in the quarter. That fall pushed the sum of ETF and total bar and coin demand to just below 201t. Total investment demand was 320t in Q1 2013, flat compared with a year ago.

• Demand in the jewellery sector was up 12% to 551t. Jewellery demand in China was 185t while demand in India was 160t.

• Demand in the technology sector once again surpassed 100t for the quarter.  Demand in Q1 2013 was 102t, down 4% on the previous year.

• The Q1 2013 total mine production was up 4% on last year at 688t. Recycling fell 4% resulting in a total supply that is 1% higher than a year ago.

• Net central bank purchases totalled 109t, 5% lower than a year ago, making this the ninth consecutive quarter in which central banks have been net purchasers of gold.

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Gold in USD, 5 Year – (Bloomberg)

The current gold price continues to appeal to investors and demand for all types of gold remains robust. There is no doubt that the next World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report will surpass all the key benchmarks set above. Buying records will continue to tumble which augurs well for the long term price of gold.

    



 
Tepper Files First Quarter 13F, Cuts Core Holdings
Wednesday, 15 May 2013 11:03
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Back in September 2010, following David Tepper’s first “balls to the wall” appearance on CNBC, we were not very surprised to learn that the seemingly permabullish hedge fund manager had taken the opportunity to follow up on the brief euphoria his speech generated then to cut 20% of his positions in assorted financial stocks – just the stocks he was praising loud and clear to the financial station with the plunging viewership.  Moments ago, Tepper’s Appaloosa filed its 13F for the quarter ended March 31, so yes, before his most recent appearance yesterday. Yet we were somewhat confused by why the manager, once again so bullish he could see no scenario that could send stocks lower, and who estimated a war in the middle east could lead to a mindblowing 5% drop in the market, decided (Read more…) trim his core holdings.

To wit:

  • AAPL, which was his biggest holdings at December 31, with 912,661 shares amounting to $486 million, was trimmed by 41% to just 540,000. Perhaps he was merely locking in the losses during one of AAPL’s worst quarters in recent history?
  • Citigroup, currently his top stake with 8,519,547 shares amounting to $377 million: stake cut by 7.3% from December 31.
  • United Continental Holdings, currently his second highest stake with 8,508,613 shares amounting to $272.4 million: stake cut by 6.7% from December 31.
  • AIG, previously his third largest holding, and the latest and greatest hedge fund hotel darling: stake cut by 28.6% from 6 million shares to 4.3 million

And so on.

In other words we wonder: was Tepper’s appearance yesterday simply to frontrun himself and to give him the opportunity to buy stocks he likes at higher prices, or, and it pains us to even contemplate it, sell more of his exposure to suckers?

Some other highlights:

  • New stakes in Comcast, Check Point, Prudential, Hess, and seemingly after hiring a new materials analyst, Ashland, Fluor, KBR and Foster Wheeler.
  • Stakes exited: QQQ, Oracle, NE, ESV.

Full breakdown of Top 40 positions below:

Tepper December 31 and March 31 holdings

    



 
David Tepper Blesses The Market And Awaits “Manufacturing Renaissance”
Tuesday, 14 May 2013 07:56
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While every other hedge fund manager is bashing Bernanke, we finally found one who loves the Chairman, unabashedly. The last time the outspoken hedge fund manager appeared on CNBC it was to pump financials into his asset sale in Europe (and here). Today he could not have been more upbeat about the US economy, US banks, and US manufacturing as he is “overwhelmingly bullish,” adding that “the numbers are truly amazing”. Sure enough the ‘Tepper rally’ market responded with its ubiquitous lemming like surge as the Appaloosa manager (with $17.9bn AUM) says: The Economy is getting better; he is bullish On Japan; does not worry about Fed tapering – but does not like bonds (adding that the end of QE2 was bullish (though if you care about facts, it wasn’t); his biggest holding is Citigroup; sees (Read more…) great US manufacturing renaissance; and while the Middle East is a concern, expects only a 5% drop if there is war. If that’s not enough for you to back up the truck, he believes the US budget deficit will shrink “massively’ and housing will rise. The only thing he is not buying with both hands and feet – Apple. As he said – the numbers are truly amazing, though we suspect we are looking at different numbers.

 

David Tepper makes “overwhelming case for stocks”

 

 

“The economy shows early signs of recovery”