Posts Tagged ‘Twitter’
Goldman’s End Of Day Recap, Or Crossing Into The Twilight Rabbit Hole Zone

When Goldman “explains” the intraday 150 point Dow Jones swing citing a “nouveau press” article, with the subsequent retraction of the same article (on Twitter, of all places) by its own author explaining the snapback, it is unclear if one must laugh, cry, or just lock the door on the way out.

From Goldman’s S&T desk:

The power of the press (and the nouveau press)! Following a very solid open, stocks maintain their early gains until FT Harding hits the tape with an article suggesting a signal from Bernanke this Wednesday that the taper was drawing near – in contrast to the more dovish Hilsenrath last week. (Read more…) Stocks drop nearly a percent. Then via Twitter Harding casts doubt on his own predictions and more than half of those losses are reversed. The price action just reinforces how important the FOMC Wednesday will be.

Meanwhile, on the other side:

… the great rotation awaits:

But at least the exit is in sight:

If you only zoom in….

    



 
Edward Snowden Is Conducting A Live Q&A Session

Eager to take advantage of NSA-whistleblower Edward Snowden’s current unincarcerated status and to ask him questions about his motives or thoughts? Here is your chance courtesy of the Guardian which is holding a live Q&A session with the famous leaker. As the Guardian notes: “He will be online today from 11am ET/4pm BST today. An important caveat: the live chat is subject to Snowden’s security concerns and also his access to a secure internet connection. It is possible that he will appear and disappear intermittently, so if it takes him a while to get through the questions, please be patient. (Read more…)” Some more from the Guardian:

  • Edward Snowden is answering your questions about the NSA leaks live
  • Post your questions in the comment section below and recommend your favorites
  • We are posting Snowden’s replies above the line
  • You can also follow along on Twitter using the hashtag #AskSnowden

The live blog can be reached at the following link.

The conversation so far:

What would you say to others who are in a position to leak classified information that could improve public understanding of the intelligence apparatus of the USA and its effect on civil liberties?

What evidence do you have that refutes the assertion that the NSA is unable to listen to the content of telephone calls without an explicit and defined court order from FISC?

Answer:

This country is worth dying for.

* * *

There is rampant speculation, outpacing facts, that you have or will provide classified US information to the Chinese or other governments in exchange for asylum. Have/will you?

Answer:

This is a predictable smear that I anticipated before going public, as the US media has a knee-jerk “RED CHINA!” reaction to anything involving HK or the PRC, and is intended to distract from the issue of US government misconduct. Ask yourself: if I were a Chinese spy, why wouldn’t I have flown directly into Beijing? I could be living in a palace petting a phoenix by now.

* * *

What are your thoughts on Google’s and Facebook’s denials? Do you think that they’re honestly in the dark about PRISM, or do you think they’re compelled to lie?

Perhaps this is a better question to a lawyer like Greenwald, but: If you’re presented with a secret order that you’re forbidding to reveal the existence of, what will they actually do if you simply refuse to comply (without revealing the order)?

Answer:

Their denials went through several revisions as it become more and more clear they were misleading and included identical, specific language across companies. As a result of these disclosures and the clout of these companies, we’re finally beginning to see more transparency and better details about these programs for the first time since their inception.

They are legally compelled to comply and maintain their silence in regard to specifics of the program, but that does not comply them from ethical obligation. If for example Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Apple refused to provide this cooperation with the Intelligence Community, what do you think the government would do? Shut them down?

* * *

1) Define in as much detail as you can what “direct access” means.

2) Can analysts listen to content of domestic calls without a warrant?

Answer:

1) More detail on how direct NSA’s accesses are is coming, but in general, the reality is this: if an NSA, FBI, CIA, DIA, etc analyst has access to query raw SIGINT databases, they can enter and get results for anything they want. Phone number, email, user id, cell phone handset id (IMEI), and so on – it’s all the same. The restrictions against this are policy based, not technically based, and can change at any time. Additionally, audits are cursory, incomplete, and easily fooled by fake justifications. For at least GCHQ, the number of audited queries is only 5% of those performed.

2) NSA likes to use “domestic” as a weasel word here for a number of reasons. The reality is that due to the FISA Amendments Act and its section 702 authorities, Americans’ communications are collected and viewed on a daily basis on the certification of an analyst rather than a warrant. They excuse this as “incidental” collection, but at the end of the day, someone at NSA still has the content of your communications. Even in the event of “warranted” intercept, it’s important to understand the intelligence community doesn’t always deal with what you would consider a “real” warrant like a Police department would have to, the “warrant” is more of a templated form they fill out and send to a reliable judge with a rubber stamp.

Glenn Greenwald follow up: When you say “someone at NSA still has the content of your communications” – what do you mean? Do you mean they have a record of it, or the actual content?

Both. If I target for example an email address, for example under FAA 702, and that email address sent something to you, Joe America, the analyst gets it. All of it. IPs, raw data, content, headers, attachments, everything. And it gets saved for a very long time – and can be extended further with waivers rather than warrants.

* * *

Why did you wait to release the documents if you said you wanted to tell the world about the NSA programs since before Obama became president?

Answer:

Obama’s campaign promises and election gave me faith that he would lead us toward fixing the problems he outlined in his quest for votes. Many Americans felt similarly. Unfortunately, shortly after assuming power, he closed the door on investigating systemic violations of law, deepened and expanded several abusive programs, and refused to spend the political capital to end the kind of human rights violations like we see in Guantanamo, where men still sit without charge.

* * *

Did you lie about your salary? What is the issue there? Why did you tell Glenn Greenwald that your salary was $200,000 a year, when it was only $122,000 (according to the firm that fired you.)

Answer:

I was debriefed by Glenn and his peers over a number of days, and not all of those conversations were recorded. The statement I made about earnings was that $200,000 was my “career high” salary. I had to take pay cuts in the course of pursuing specific work. Booz was not the most I’ve been paid.

* * *

I should have asked you this when I saw you but never got round to it……..Why did you just not fly direct to Iceland if that is your preferred country for asylum?

Answer:

Leaving the US was an incredible risk, as NSA employees must declare their foreign travel 30 days in advance and are monitored. There was a distinct possibility I would be interdicted en route, so I had to travel with no advance booking to a country with the cultural and legal framework to allow me to work without being immediately detained. Hong Kong provided that. Iceland could be pushed harder, quicker, before the public could have a chance to make their feelings known, and I would not put that past the current US administration.

* * *

1) Why did you choose Hong Kong to go to and then tell them about US hacking on their research facilities and universities?

2) How many sets of the documents you disclosed did you make, and how many different people have them? If anything happens to you, do they still exist?

Answer:

1) First, the US Government, just as they did with other whistleblowers, immediately and predictably destroyed any possibility of a fair trial at home, openly declaring me guilty of treason and that the disclosure of secret, criminal, and even unconstitutional acts is an unforgivable crime. That’s not justice, and it would be foolish to volunteer yourself to it if you can do more good outside of prison than in it.

Second, let’s be clear: I did not reveal any US operations against legitimate military targets. I pointed out where the NSA has hacked civilian infrastructure such as universities, hospitals, and private businesses because it is dangerous. These nakedly, aggressively criminal acts are wrong no matter the target. Not only that, when NSA makes a technical mistake during an exploitation operation, critical systems crash. Congress hasn’t declared war on the countries – the majority of them are our allies – but without asking for public permission, NSA is running network operations against them that affect millions of innocent people. And for what? So we can have secret access to a computer in a country we’re not even fighting? So we can potentially reveal a potential terrorist with the potential to kill fewer Americans than our own Police? No, the public needs to know the kinds of things a government does in its name, or the “consent of the governed” is meaningless.

2) All I can say right now is the US Government is not going to be able to cover this up by jailing or murdering me. Truth is coming, and it cannot be stopped.

    



 
Bernanke And His Game Of Chicken

 photo KarateChicken.gif 

Sometimes things can get out of control. So you have to wonder if the “taper caper” was either:

A. A deliberate ploy or trial balloon to gauge investor reaction

(Read more…)

B. An effort to reduce speculation in extended equity and high yield sectors

C. Something that just got out of control as vigilantes showed Ben they’re still around

E. Even if Ben gives markets more QE, will they still trust him?

D. All of the above.

We’ll know more next week Wednesday when the Fed meeting concludes with a language parsing contest. In the meantime, stock market volatility is increasing as we’re experiencing alternating triple digit days now. Thursday was a combination of algos ramping a tag of the 50-day moving average, the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) again displaying a short-term oversold -100 reading and the obligatory Hell-Sin-Wrath (WSJ reporter & Bernanke oracle, Jon Hilsenrath) blog post the Fed believes investors are over-reacting to “tapering” talk and to just calm the hell down. This combination allowed stocks to rally. 

Now markets are getting more volatile with each passing day. The IMF stated U.S. economic growth looked “modestly tilted to the downside” weaker. This followed the World Bank lowering global economic growth the other day. Most would spit on their always late opinions just as with rating agency’s opinions. Both may give the Fed cover for more QE.

Economic data Friday included a rising PPI of 0.5% vs 0.2% expected, and the prior -0.5%; the always amusing “core” rate came in at 0.1% vs 0.1% expected, and prior 0.1%; Industrial Production was flat at .0% vs 0.2%, and prior -0.4%; Capacity Utilization declined to 77.6 vs 72.9 expected, and the prior at 77.8; and lastly, Consumer Sentiment declined to 82.7 vs 84.5 expected, and prior 84.5.

One thing that pissed the average RIA or DIY investor was a story stating the ISM, (Institute for Supply Management) which releases its reliable manufacturing indexes to the public, are said to be now releasing it early enough to paying HFTs who can jump ahead of everyone else. This does and should be upsetting. But this is now controlled by Thomson-Reuters who are always interested in making a few more bucks no matter if it’s unethical or not. This is just another way to destroy trust in fair play for investors without connections or deep pockets. If this is true, drop da boyz at Thomson Reuters a note about how you feel.

Meanwhile, “bond daddy” Bill Gross stated that investors should avoid long duration income related investments: “We believe caution is warranted not just for fixed income investors, but for investors in all risk assets; avoiding long durations, reducing credit risk away from economically vulnerable companies and sectors”. And, as if on cue, Detroit just defaulted on all its unsecured debt.

One thing I’ve been watching is the monthly DeMark sequential 9 counts which, even during previous bouts of QE, have proved reasonably reliable in producing a countertrend reaction. It may just allow markets to move sideways or decline. It’s hard to know since other DeMark indicators, especially from daily views have performed poorly this year. Nevertheless, we utilize them especially when markets are extended from this view.

6-14-2013 6-34-34 PM dow jones

Oil rallied once again making some wonder why given poor economic conditions. We did a short chart video on the subject and featured some analysis from a guest contributor.

As a consequence our exposure to equities is only at 30% (mostly token positions) with the balance in cash.

So down triple digits, up triple digits and down triple digits will probably freak-out many investors not liking the volatility. Most sectors just reversed course from Thursday to wrap up the week, failing to achieve the Friday follow-thru as achieved last week. If markets don’t rally after the Fed meeting next Wednesday, then it may become obvious markets are topping out.

Volume overall was lighter and breadth per the WSJ was negative flirting again with short-term oversold conditions.

6-14-2013 6-35-17 PM markets diary

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NYMO

NYMO

The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

NYSI

NYSI

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

VIX

VIX

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the “investor fear gauge”. Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise

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Bulls couldn’t do an instant replay from the previous week. Perhaps now we’ll just remain sideways until the Fed meeting or bears will force the issue before then.

It’s upsetting that reputable economic index providers would stoop to sell their services to allow HFTs to front run everyone else. What’s next? Will the Labor Department start sell employment data?

Next week is important obviously as all eyes will be on the FOMC.

Happy Father’s Day!

Let’s see what happens.